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The village of Al-Waht in Yemen was once a thriving agricultural community, but the farmland is now devastated. Photo: Saleh Hayyan, Oxfam

Sweden's responsibility in the climate crisis

Swedes' emissions will cause death, hunger and economic loss

Swedes' emissions reduce enough crops to feed half a million people a year

If everyone lived like the richest 1% of Swedes, humanity's remaining carbon budget to keep warming to 1.5°C would be gone in 6 months. Sweden's historical carbon emissions are 22 times higher than our share of the world population. We are a small country but the damage we cause in the world is huge.

Sweden's emissions have already had devastating consequences. New research from Oxfam Sweden, together with researchers from Concordia University, Universitat de Barcelona, Dartmouth College and Columbia University, maps out a sample of the concrete climate damage Swedes' emissions are causing in the world:

→ 13.8 million people could have been fed in the future

Sweden's consumption-based emissions in 1990-2019 will cause reduced harvests equivalent to enough food to feed half a million people a year or 13.8 million people in total between 2023 and 2050.

The richest emit, the poorest pay the price

Globally, the world's richest 10% account for half of all emissions in the world. About 70% of Sweden's population belongs to the world's richest 10%. But it is the countries and people living in poverty and who are most vulnerable that are hit hardest.

Sanfo Ramata is a farmer living in Burkina Faso. She works with a partner of Oxfam. In recent years, climate change has meant a lack of both water and fodder for her animals, resulting in the death of more and more of her livestock. Photo: Oxfam

Sweden must take its responsibility

Sweden must take responsibility for the damage and losses we cause the world. Sweden's historical emissions are causing climate damage in the world, people are dying, crops are being lost and economic productivity is declining.

Sweden already owes around SEK 24 billion per year for climate damage caused by Sweden, and by 2030 the bill will increase to around SEK 38 billion per year.

At the same time, Sweden is avoiding its responsibilities. We are the only Nordic country that has not pledged support to the new Damage and Loss Fund agreed by the international community at the UN climate summit.

"Sweden as a country has a great historical responsibility. Oxfam estimates that Sweden would need to set aside up to SEK 24 billion per year to compensate for the climate damage caused by Swedish emissions in low- and middle-income countries. But not all Swedes bear the same responsibility. As Oxfam has previously shown, the richest people, countries and companies are fueling the climate crisis at a rapid pace. The richest have a double responsibility to both rapidly reduce their emissions, and pay for the suffering they cause."

Astrid Nilsson Lewis, Report author

The reports

SWEDEN'S RESPONSIBILITY IN THE CLIMATE CRISIS

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CARBON INEQUALITY KILLS

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Climate damage

Sweden's historical consumption-based emissions have already caused damage in the world, and right now emissions are increasing.

Deaths

  • A single year of current Swedish consumption-based emissions will cause over 4 600 deaths worldwide due to heat over the next 100 years. Of the deaths that will occur, 78% will be in low- and lower middle-income countries.

Hunger and economic loss

  • Swedes' consumption-based emissions in 1990-2019 will cause reduced harvests equivalent to enough food for half a million people a year or 13.8 million people in total between 2023 and 2050.

  • Swedes' consumption-based emissions in 1990-2019 will cause an economic loss of 228 billion SEK per year or 6 200 billion SEK in total between 2023 and 2050

"The consequences of Sweden's emissions are severe and deadly and are likely to get much worse. The hardest hit will be people living in poverty and vulnerability, for example 78% of excess heat-related deaths will occur in low and lower middle-income countries. We urgently need to start reducing emissions in Sweden and the rest of the world - every ton of CO2 has a direct impact on human lives."

Mira Alestig, report author

But we do not all contribute equally to the climate crisis

Oxfam Sweden has previously shown the inequality hiding behind the climate crisis. In Sweden, a person from the richest 1 percent emits almost 10 times more than someone from the 50 percent with the lowest income. Globally, the richest 1% emit as much as two-thirds of humanity.

Inequality behind the climate crisis

The billionaire lifestyle

The private jets and super-yachts of 50 of the world's richest billionaires emit so much carbon dioxide in a year that the average person would have to live 300 years and 860 years respectively to reach the same amount. In 90 minutes, about the time it takes to travel by train from Linköping to Stockholm, 50 of the world's richest billionaires emit as much through their jets, yachts and dirty investments as the average person does in their lifetime. If they all emitted as much as the world's richest 1%, the remaining CO2 budget to keep global warming to 1.5°C would run out in less than 5 months.

More about the world's billionaires

Sweden can still do the right thing

SEK 24 billion per year is already Sweden's bill for the climate damage we cause. By 2030, it will increase to SEK 38 billion.

To pay the bill and and rapidly reduce emissions, Oxfam Sweden is making proposals to the Swedish government and parliament focusing on three main main areas:

  • How Sweden will pay the bill and finance a rapid and just climate transition
  • A rapid and fair phase-out of fossil fuels
  • Promoting a well-being economy

→ Responsibility and capacity - The richest pay the most

We are not all equally to blame for the climate crisis. That's why Oxfam Sweden wants the Swedish government and parliament to introduce a new wealth tax. Etax on Swedish multimillionaires and billionaires would could generategenerate around 158 billion SEK per year. This is almost 7 times more than Sweden's fair share to the fund for losses and damages.

Tax rates need to be 2% for net wealth over SEK 50 million, 3% on net wealth over SEK 500 million and 5% on wealth over SEK 10 billion. In addition, Oxfam Sweden proposes an increase in the marginal tax rate for Sweden's richest 1%, a temporary tax on companies that make unexpectedly large profits, and a progressive aviation tax. All these measures would radically reduce economic inequality while allowing Sweden to pay off its debt to the Damage and Loss Fund and invest in a just climate transition.

→ Sharply reduce emissions

Sweden must must work proactively to reduce emissions quickly. A climate action plan must be adopted where Sweden takes its responsibility to limit emissions to 1.5°C, in line with science, our commitments, and taking into account equity aspects. This means, among other things introducing a consumption-based metricThe territorial emissions currently used as a measure to track emissions do not take into account how Swedes' consumption contributes to global carbon dioxide emissions. To get a more accurate picture of Sweden's emissions, a consumption-based measure is needed. Sweden must also stop subsidizing fossil fuels and ban the advertising of climate-damaging goods in public spaces.

Another world is possible - With an economy focused on well-being

The way we live now is not sustainable. Current systems lock us into a quest for perpetual growth, at the expense of people and the planet. Oxfam Sweden therefore wants to see, in the long term, that we instead create an economy that focuses on human well-being within the limits of our planet.

This does not mean that Swedes' standard of living will deteriorate. Instead, laws should be changed and there should be incentives to increase the quality of life where all people have the opportunity to live and develop in harmony with nature. To achieve this, we need to change both how our economies are designed and what we strive for.

This is already possible! Research shows that it is possible to end global poverty, meet everyone's needs and create good lives for all - within the planet's limits. And with much less energy and resource use than today. We already produce enough, we just don't distribute it fairly.

The reports

SWEDEN'S RESPONSIBILITY IN THE CLIMATE CRISIS (INCLUDING METHODOLOGY)

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CARBON INEQUALITY KILLS

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Questions and Answers

Losses are irreversible damages, e.g. complete inundation of small island nations due to rising sea levels, extinction of a species, or permanent loss of cultural heritage sites due to erosion caused by extreme weather events. Damage can be temporary or partially restoredrestoredand require repair, restoration or compensation. Examples include destruction of infrastructure due to hurricanes, economic losses due to crop failure due to drought, or costs of relocating coastal communities due to erosion and rising sea levels. Losses and damages can be economic as well as non-economic, such as loss of cultural heritage, traditions and identity. Can also be referred to as climate damage.

It oincludes emissions from goods and services used in Sweden regardless of where the emissions occur. On average, Swedes cause twice as many emissions abroad as within Sweden's borders. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze and act to reduce Swedes' consumption-based emissions. These emissions are calculated by adding up all emissions emitted in Sweden, plus all emissions caused by imports into Sweden, minus emissions from Swedish exports. This way, the emissions linked to Sweden's consumption are calculated, including emissions caused abroad.

We asked a number of researchers from Concordia University, Universitat de Barcelona, Dartmouth College and Columbia University to calculate the different climate damages. Their research is based on the latest research in each field. By combining physical climate models and empirical models that calculate the impact of emissions, they have assessed the rate of warming associated with emissions and then estimated the damages and losses caused by that warming. The analysis is based on the world's richest consumption-based emissions relative to income as calculated by the Stockholm Environment Institute and Oxfam.

There will be economic gains from heat too. However, we see that the economic losses will be much larger, and the majority will be in low and lower middle income countries. The economic gains will be mainly in high-income countries. But the estimate should be considered very conservative. For example, the methodology is based on historical data and does not capture damage from unprecedented warming and does not include economic damage from extreme weather.

Sweden is a small country, but Swedes have disproportionately high emissions. Right now, emissions are increasing by 5.6% when they really need to decrease by 7%. If everyone lived like the richest 1% of Swedes, the carbon budget left to keep humanity from exceeding 1.5 degrees of warming would run out in six months - with disastrous consequences. Many high-emitting countries are small countries. Being a small country does not mean that you do not have to take responsibility.

No, that's not enough, the Loss and Damage Fund is only one part of what is called climate finance. Under that umbrella, there is funding for climate adaptation, emission reduction measures and now the Loss and Damage Fund. Just paying the bill for damages and losses is not enough. We raise this specifically because Sweden is the only Nordic country that so far has not pledged any money to the International Loss and Damage Fund.

In 79 countries, Oxfam works on both prevention and emergency work. By prevention we mean supporting communities to adapt to climate change but and by producing research to influence politicians to work for a more just and equitable climate transition. Our emergency work means that in the event of climate-related crises and disasters, we are quickly on the ground and work with local partners to support people affected. Read more about our work.

More on climate inequality